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Saturday, 25 April 2009

Public Enemies

Today I started working on editing our new brochure, our first summertime programme. Public Enemies is our big blockbuster summer film this year. Those who know me, know I am a Michael Mann nut. So personally, I am quite excited. But how will this play? On paper, a Johnny Depp/Christian Bale crime movie should be a no brainer. But plenty of Mann's films fail to deliver commercially, perhaps because his style is an acquired taste. His biggest hit to date is the Tom Cruise thriller Collateral.

The release date, July 3rd, is right in the middle of two tentpoles: Ice Age 3 (which is a 3D release) the week before and Bruno the week after. This leaves the market for males looking for action and Depp-crazed females pretty clear. My guess is the long running time and depressing storyline (ironically, Dillinger found his final fate at a cinema) will mean a solid but not spectacular opening and eventual final box office of around £10-15 million. (My guess is around $100-110 million in the US). Violent, 'serious' thrillers with big name casts such as 'The Departed' have limited appeal.

In terms of business at the Dukes, I speculate around 6-7,000 admissions for the two week run.

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